Weekly Market Strategy - September 10, 2024 (Tuesday)

Last week, attention was focused on the slowdown in the labor market rather than US interest rates. Wednesday's JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest level since 2021, and Thursday's ADP employment report also hit its lowest level since 2021. Following Friday's employment report, non-farm payrolls came in at 142,000, missing expectations. In response to a series of weak labor market indicators, US stocks and the Nikkei plummeted, US long-term interest rates fell to their lowest level in 16 months, the dollar index continued to decline, and USD/JPY was sold down to the mid-141 yen level, forming a double bottom with the 141.688 yen low set on 8/5. At the start of this week, the US dollar index has risen and USD/JPY is bouncing back to the 143 yen level. Watch for US consumer price data tomorrow!

Gold continues to trade in a sideways range in the $2,500 range. Since gold maintains an upside bias for the year, a long position is recommended waiting for a pullback to around $2,450. From a medium to long-term perspective, there may be a pullback next year.

WTI crude oil has broken below $70 due to recession concerns for the US economy and weakening demand expectations. Europe and China's economies are also weak, which is weighing on sentiment. OPEC+ delayed an increase in production of 180,000 b/d until December, but this has had no impact. The only bullish factor is hurricane risk in the Gulf of Mexico. Technically, a bottom is near.

In summary, for USD/JPY in the short term, we are looking for a buying opportunity, but if it breaks below 140 yen, use a stop loss. Take profits and go short around 151-153 yen. For gold, buy at $2,450. For short-term positions, use a stop loss if it breaks below $2,300, but for this year, medium to long-term positions are recommended to hold. For crude oil, there is a possibility of further declines, so take a wait-and-see approach for now.