This Week's Market Strategy – November 12, 2024 (Tuesday)

Last Wednesday's US presidential election saw a major upset from mainstream media expectations, with President Trump winning by a landslide. Anticipating a golden age for the US economy, US dollars, long-term US interest rates, and US stocks were bought aggressively all at once, dragging USD/JPY sharply higher from the 151 yen range to just before 155 yen. Meanwhile, the FOMC in the early hours of Friday decided on a 0.25% rate cut as previously expected, to which the market showed little reaction, but USD strengthened on dovish remarks from Chairman Powell during the press conference, causing USD/JPY to rebound sharply. At the start of the week, there was a moment when it was sold down to the low 152 yen range, but it is currently attempting 154 yen again.

WTI crude oil futures had been rising until mid-week last week on news of OPEC+ delaying production increases, but on Friday and Monday they plunged sharply from the 72 dollar range to below approximately 68 dollars. The weak outlook for China, the largest importing country, is the biggest headwind. However, Trump's sanctions on Iran and Venezuela are bullish factors. While WTI crude fundamentals remain weak, a break below the year's low set on 9/10 (around 64 dollars) looks buyable.

Gold fell sharply to the early 2,600 dollar range per ounce on Monday. The rise in US long-term interest rates was the selling factor. Additionally, buying from China has also stopped.

If US long-term interest rates continue rising, dollar buying continues and USD/JPY rises as well. Gold has come down to the target 2,600 dollar range. Below here, long-term buying makes sense, but short-term it is still difficult to buy.

In summary: USD/JPY – buy on any pullback to the 151 yen range. Take profits at 155 yen range. Cut losses below 149 yen. Gold – for long-term longs, buy in the early 2,600 dollar range. WTI crude – long at 64 dollars. Take profits at 70 dollars, cut losses below 60 dollars.