This Week's Market Strategy - February 12, 2025 (Wed)

Since last week, Trump tariffs have been implemented on Canada, Mexico, and China, which became a selling factor for USD/JPY.

However, by the time of Friday's employment statistics, which were the focus, the market had already declined, and although the employment numbers were weak, market reaction was limited.

At the start of the week, Trump implemented 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. While it appears to be a trade war, the market has experienced some volatility but movement remains limited.

Bank of Japan hawkish board member Tamura stated the need to raise the policy interest rate to at least 1% by the second half of this fiscal year, which also became a selling factor for USD/JPY.

The price range from last week to today is 5 yen, with the low at 150.93 yen; 150 yen appears to be a solid support level.

USD/JPY has experienced a larger-than-expected decline and we are long from early 154 yen last week. Cut losses below 150 yen.

WTI crude oil futures rising to the 73 dollar level is due to heightened geopolitical risks including increased supply risks from Russia, new US sanctions on Iran, and ceasefire termination risks between Israel and Hamas.

Additionally, surging natural gas prices in Europe may push up demand.

WTI crude oil is showing signs of recovery. On any decline, buy at the 70 dollar level for short-term trading; cut losses below 67 dollars.

Gold is updating highs due to increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Trump tariffs.

The high so far is 2968.5 dollars from yesterday. Central bank gold purchases continue to support bullion, and the People's Bank of China increased gold holdings for three consecutive months in January.

However, we do not recommend buying at this point. For gold from a long-term perspective, buy if it breaks below 2,750 dollars.