This Week's Market Strategy - March 25, 2025 (Tuesday)

Last week, both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan held interest rates steady.

USD/JPY experienced selling pressure from the mid-150s to the low-148s due to expectations of three consecutive years of significant wage increases from the Shunto spring labor negotiations and the Fed conducting two additional rate cuts this year. However, the currency rebounded to the late-149s by Friday in response to Japan's latest inflation statistics. The week started with weak Japanese PMI data offset by strong U.S. data, causing USD/JPY to break through 150 and rally to the high-150s. 151 is within reach. USD/JPY continues its corrective uptrend within a broader downtrend.

For the short-term long position taken last week at the low-148s, profit-taking is recommended at 151. Short entry at the high-153s, stop loss at 154.85, profit-taking recommended at the mid-148s.

Following U.S. military attacks on Yemen's Houthis and enhanced Iran sanctions, crude oil futures saw a new proposal for Venezuela sanctions at the start of the week, leading to expectations of reduced exports from both oil-producing countries and a rebound in crude prices from the low-$66 to near $70.

Israel's resumption of Hamas attacks is also a bullish factor for crude oil prices.

WTI crude oil has entered an uptrend, so long positions are recommended in the low-$67 range. Stop loss at $65.17.

Gold prices continue to hit all-time highs at $3,065 due to concerns about Trump's tariffs expanding into a broader global trade dispute, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

For a longer-term perspective, buying gold at the low-$2,900s is recommended.